Saturday, 2 June 2012

Queensland Floods 2011 - To Levee or Not To Levee...

Review an accident report, one of the case studies or an article in the popular media. Present ... 
  • An example of deductive reasoning (were the conclusions valid or invalid as reasoned)
  • An example of inductive reasoning (was the argument strong or weak as reasoned)
Beginning in December 2010, multiple flood events occurred throughout Queensland, eventually resulting in three quarters of the state being declared a disaster zone in January 2011. A combination of heavy rainfall caused by Tropical Cyclone Tasha and prolonged heavy rainfall as part of the La Nina weather conditions was cited as the cause for this extensive flooding throughout Queensland (Wikipedia, 2012). It was the worst flooding event to occur since the previous floods of 1974.

As a result of the floods, 35 people lost their lives, extensive damage was inflicted on roads and infrastructure, cities and towns were closed down as a result of forced and voluntary evacuations, and a significant number of homes and businesses were inundated with water.  "Economists have predicted the national damage bill from the floods to top $10 billion". (The Age, 2011)

Some Queensland towns, such as St George, Goondiwindi, Cunnamulla and Dirranbandi, had incorporated a flood mitigation strategy of installing levees around their towns, which minimised the damage inflicted by the flooding. "If not for its recently built levees, 80 per cent of St George would have gone under". (Molino, S, 2011)

Based on this information, an example of deductive reasoning could be:
  • If a town has a flood levee in place, then that levee will reduce the impacts of a flooding event (by minimising the amount of water that enters a town)
  • St George had a (temporary) flood levee in place
  • Therefore St George will have reduced impacts from the flooding event

I believe this conclusion is valid, however it does not take into account the effects that could occur if the flood levee was inadequately built or was to leak, break or not be built high enough, which could then make this conclusion invalid. 

Another issue to arise after the floods, was the cost of insurance for some towns that are hesitant to invest in flood mitigation strategies, such as flood levees, to prevent similar damage from occurring in the future, either due to aesthetic reasons or the costs involved for such operations. This has resulted in some insurance companies significantly increasing insurance premiums or refusing to insure residents of "high-risk" towns due to the high probability of their being flooded again without strategies in place to minimise the impacts. 

"Suncorp continues to honour the policies of customers in Emerald and Roma - two of the towns worst affected by recent floods - but won't offer new policies in those towns until flood mitigation is in place. The insurer has taken $4 million in premiums in Emerald and Roma in the past two years, and paid out $150 million in claims". (Madigan, M, 2012)

Based on this information, an example of inductive reasoning could be:
  • Flood insurance payouts over the past two years for Emerald and Roma have excessively exceeded the insurance premiums that have been paid by residents
  • Therefore, future insurance payouts for these two towns will continue to be high 

I  believe this argument is weak as, although it is based on factual information over the past two years, there is not enough information to sufficiently gauge a correlation between these two towns and whether the amount of insurance payouts that have been made is excessively high, and will continue to be excessively high in the future.

The extreme weather patterns over the past two years has resulted in higher than average insurance payouts Queensland wide, not just within these two towns. Therefore, to create a strong argument, a more extensive analysis would need to be undertaken of these two towns to determine if this has been an ongoing issue dating back further than the past two years, whether it is predicted to continue in the future (based on weather patterns, population, land developments) and what types of flood mitigation strategies these towns have implemented in the past as opposed to what types of flood mitigation strategies they could implement in the future.  
  
References

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Monday, 30 April 2012

Granville Rail Disaster (Acci-Map)

Observe the world around you and consider the various levels of an AcciMap. Follow one line of enquiry through each of the levels. 

The Granville rail disaster occurred on 18 January 1977 at Granville, a suburb in western Sydney, when a crowded commuter train derailed, running into the supports of a road bridge that collapsed onto two of the train's passenger carriages. 83 people died, more than 210 were injured, and 1,300 were affected. It is the worst rail disaster in Australian history based on loss of life.
The bridge was rebuilt as a single span without any intermediate support piers. Other bridges similar to the destroyed bridge had their piers reinforced.
The inquiry into the accident found that the primary cause of the crash was "the very unsatisfactory condition of the permanent way", being the poor fastening of the track, causing the track to spread and allowing the left front wheel of the locomotive to come off the rail. How this happened was related to the high turnover of staff combined with a lack of standard procedures for track inspections. The posted limit for the track was not shown to be too great, provided appropriate track inspection and maintenance was occurring.
The disaster caused substantial increases in rail-maintenance expenditure. (Wikipedia, 2012)


References
  • Wikipedia, 2012, Granville Rail Disaster, Wikipedia, viewed 27 April 2012,  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Granville_rail_disaster 
  • Howard, K, 2006, Granville Train Disaster, viewed 27 April 2012,  http://www.granvilledisaster.com/ 
  • WestlineDI, 2011, Granville Rail Disaster January 18th 1977, YouTube, viewed 27 April 2012, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sFGKs62Wz5Y 
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Monday, 26 March 2012

Vitamin C and the Common Cold


Observe the world around you and reflect on … Habits, ‘truth’ or other phenomenon that have grown from tradition or other source (e.g. family, disciplinary or cultural) and become part of our ‘practice’ that may or not have any evidence base for the practice. 

For half of last week I was inflicted with all the horrible symptoms of the common cold. The first thing I did when I felt the symptoms start was visit a chemist and buy some cold and flu tablets. The second thing I did was visit a health food store to buy a large supply of Vitamin C tablets to assist with the recovery from this virus, because from as far back as I remember, I have been told that Vitamin C helps to fight off colds. As a child, I used to enjoy taking Vitamin C for its sugary qualities, rather than any perceived medicinal qualities. This caused me to question what type of scientific evidence supported this claim of Vitamin Cs supposed healing benefits, or was it something that I was told from a young age and just chose to continue believing? Was my belief that Vitamin C reduced the severity and duration of colds enough to make me think that it worked, despite it having very little effect at all, or was there scientific evidence supporting its health benefits? 


This practice appears to have gained widespread attention from Linus Pauling’s book from the 1970s, Vitamin C and the Common Cold, which claimed that Vitamin C could significantly decrease the incidence of the common cold. A controlled study undertaken at the time indicated that taking Vitamin C in mega-doses before and after the onset of cold symptoms relieved and prevented symptoms in the test group compared to the control group. This in turn created a widespread belief that consuming more vitamin C reduces the risk of catching a cold and its severity.


While widespread research has been undertaken on this topic, there seems to be conflicting evidence over the validity of the results. Researchers at the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health in the ACT undertook an extensive investigation into twenty-nine trial comparisons that have been undertaken over the years involving 11,077 study participants. Their findings determined that taking mega-doses of Vitamin C to reduce the duration and severity of colds is not justifiable for community use. Trials where Vitamin C (up to 4 grams daily) were consumed as treatment at the start of colds did not show any benefit to the participants. However, trials where 8 grams of Vitamin C were consumed as treatment at the start of colds were shown to have some benefits.


To put this into perspective, each tablet within the bottle of Vitamin C that I purchased contains 500mg of Vitamin C. Therefore, to see any real benefit from the treatment of Vitamin C, one would have to consume 16 tablets at the onset of symptoms. The recommended daily intake of Vitamin C for healthy adults is anywhere between 30 and 90 mg. Excess consumption of Vitamin C has been found to result in neglible absorption and can result in it being excreted out of the body.  


Excessive intake of Vitamin C has also been linked to indigestion and diarrhoea; the dosage rate which can vary from person to person. What may also be unknown is that ascorbic acid, which is a form of Vitamin C, is included in some cold tablets, so by taking these cold and flu tablets to alleviate symptoms, you are already ingesting a form of Vitamin C. 


From the research conducted above, the findings also indicated that persons involved in brief periods of severe physical exercise and/or cold environments (such as athletes or soldiers) could benefit from using Vitamin C as a treatment and prevention against common colds.


While there are benefits to including Vitamin C supplements in ones daily intake, it appears that this treatment option for the common cold has perhaps been over-emphasised to the general public, given the dose that one would have to consume to see any real benefits in the prevention or minimisation of the severity and duration of colds.
  
References
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Friday, 23 March 2012

Pedestrians, Cyclists and Drivers - The battle continues...

Observe the world around you and consider a problem to be solved

A quote I once heard:
"As a driver I hate pedestrians, and as a pedestrian I hate drivers, but no matter what the mode of transportation, I always hate cyclists."
We have been asked to observe the world around us and consider a problem to be solved. Not being a cyclist myself, this quote reflects my feelings about a modern day problem that is regularly experienced between motorists, pedestrians and cyclists. 

The findings from a Suncorp survey, revealed by the Courier Mail on 30 November 2011 showed that about four out of five Brisbane motorists believed roads were dangerous for cyclists. The research found 86% of Queensland motorists reported having seen cyclists breaking the law or riding dangerously and 70% believed drivers need to pay more attention to cyclists. The survey also showed that one in three drivers has had a close call with a cyclist and 6% have collided with a rider.

Given the benefits cycling can offer, such as being eco-friendly and enabling a healthy lifestyle, it is concerning that cyclists don’t have a safer environment to partake in this activity or fail to take more care when sharing the roads with cars and pedestrians.

Problem: What needs to be solved?

Between January 2000 and December 2008, 6328 crashes involving bicycles and motor vehicles were recorded in the Queensland Crash Database as being reported to police. In 44% of cases, the bicyclist was deemed to be the at-fault vehicle. Despite the benefits associated with cycling, many cyclists are injured in road crashes and significant conflict can develop between cyclists and other road users. In 2006-2007, cyclists made up 14.6% of all road users who were admitted to hospital as a result of a road vehicle traffic crash in Australia.
The problem that needs to be solved is minimising the number of accidents that cyclists are involved in, while promoting a greater level of respect between motorists, pedestrians and cyclists who share bike paths, footpaths and the roads with each other. When a cyclist impacts a vehicle, it is the cyclist that will receive the most severe injuries, just as when a cyclist impacts a pedestrian, it is usually the pedestrian that will receive the most severe injuries. More care needs to be taken by all sides to minimise the accidents and near-accidents that occur.

Context: Describe the problem space.

While a lack of available bike paths for an increasing cycling community is one issue that contributes to this problem, a combination of driver errors and traffic violations is another contributing factor. Cyclists who disobey road rules because they think they won’t be caught or that the rules don’t apply to them because they are not in a car, should not be exempt from the law.
Senior Researcher, Amy Schramm of the Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety - Queensland states that a lack of due care and attention was the primary cause for accidents, as reported to the Courier Mail on 13 September 2010. Research has found that most accidents occur because bike lanes exist on the left hand side of roads, however motorists have been taught to look right when stopping at intersections and roundabouts. This results in motorists acting on a learned behaviour, rather than deliberately causing accidents with cyclists. Additionally, while cyclists riding in groups is the main annoyance for motorists, this behaviour is considered to be one of safety for them, so as motorists are more aware of them. (Weston 2010)

Realities: Describe the practice space.

This issue occurs on all roads throughout metropolitan and regional areas, however given the larger populations in urban areas, the majority of accidents occur in these areas.
The highest age groups of cyclists involved in accidents were the 12-16 and 30-39 demographic.
This could show that increased education and road cycle practice may benefit the 12-16 age groups while increased awareness of safe cycling practices targeted at cycling clubs and recreational cyclists may benefit the 30-39 age groups who could have become blasé about such issues over the years.

Actors: Who are the key actors of this network?

The key actors of this network are:
*   Cyclists – recreational and cycling groups
*   Drivers – who encounter cyclists on roads
*   Pedestrians – who walk in areas that cyclists utilise
*   Governments/Council - responsible for developing new bike paths and infrastructure
*   Police - who investigate accidents that occur and govern adherence to road rules

Tensions: What are the tensions from the problem/practice space?

A lack of bike paths to accommodate the increasing number of cyclists is a main contributory tension point that is forcing more cyclists to use the roads.
The mindset of certain cyclists who either do not know or choose to ignore the road rules also adds to the tensions between cyclists and motor vehicles, in addition to cyclists and pedestrians on footpaths (cyclists are allowed to use footpaths but must give way to pedestrians).

Lack of cycling experience on busy roads for new cyclists may also add to this issue.
The main concern though, I think, is a lack of understanding and consideration by the cyclists, motor vehicles and pedestrians with regards to other road users around them.

Problem Definition: What would the problem look like if it were solved?
If this problem were solved there would be a decrease in the number of cyclists and pedestrians injured each year in accidents and a decrease in the number of cyclists killed each year in accidents. This could only result if cyclists, pedestrians and motorists showed increased consideration for other road users though. While an increase in the number of bike paths and bike lanes would assist this issue, it essentially comes down to the persons behaviour towards, and awareness of, others in their vicinity, as to whether or not accidents can be prevented. 

Concepts: What possible concepts might provide a solution?

Concepts that might provide a solution to this issue include:
*  Educational awareness campaigns that highlight cyclist safety and promote a shared road experience for all road users
*  Cyclist road rule tests, similar to tests undertaken to obtain a drivers licence, in addition to supervised cycling "probation" periods through different road conditions (peak, rural, urban).
*   Stricter police enforcement of bicycle regulations and adherence to road rules.
*   Increased bike paths or bike lanes on roads in metropolitan and regional areas
*   Increased lighting for bike paths at night
*  Lower speed limits on bike paths, foot paths and where cyclists, pedestrians and motor vehicles share the roads.
*   Increased mandatory protective wear that would make cyclists more visible and/or assist in protecting cyclists from accidents (reflective vests, knee and elbow pads).


 References
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Sunday, 18 March 2012

Blog Reflections and New Perceptions

Access three other student blogs and explain how this informed any new perspectives

I read with interest the blog by Theresa Timmins which can be accessed at: http://viewfromtheballast.blogspot.com.au/
Her account of the accident she attended and the following investigations she undertook provided me with a new insight about how one shouldn't rule out further investigations just because the findings appears to be (initially) quite conclusive by the majority of people involved. I found her determination to investigate further, despite the majority of people involved in the investigation appearing to have arrived at a conclusion already, quite admirable. It also reinforced to me that just because others may think one way about something, it doesn't mean there aren't other issues that need to be explored before a satisfactory conclusion can be reached. Additionally, it brought to my attention that unless one has the ability to look at each incident with fresh eyes, then one may find themselves trapped in a tunnel vision view of an incident which may appear similar to other incidents that have been investigated in the past but may eventually not resemble the current incident after all, if one is willing to find out all the facts.

Tammy Mullers blog, which can be accessed at:
Her humorous interpretations of her reality within the world and the questions she manages to ask has caused me to give more thought about my views of the world. Her blog on "Building Synapses" was especially poignant to me as too often, I think, we are happy to question others about things, but how often do we actually question ourselves about our thoughts and what instigates them? And if we did take the time to question them, would it provide us with a new insight into the very thing that we are questioning?
To quote Tammy from her "Alice Through The Looking Glass" blog:
To gain a clearer insight into the outside it appears first important to understand our own contextual vision and how our personal prescriptive lens has affected the view.
I look forward to reading more of Tammys thoughts and in so doing, questioning more of my own thought processes on how I see and interact with the world around me.

I found Paul Wards blog, which can be accessed at:
His ability to question the path that he was on, and to then decide to change it to a different one showed great courage and resolve.
For too many years, I continued working in hospitality even though I eventually found that I didnt really enjoy the work. It had been my main occupation since leaving school, and while I had the opportunity to travel to some amazing places throughout my time in the industry, the nomadic lifestyle, lack of job security and crazy shiftwork hours were beginning to bore me. Only after questioning what I really wanted, was I able to look at making a change to a different industry which has eventually led me to my studies here today.
As with any type of change, the initial stages can be somewhat daunting but what I learnt was that not changing would have been far more detrimental, which is the underlying message I also took from Pauls first blog.
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Thursday, 15 March 2012

Autism Spectrum Disorder: Peering in from the outside

Observe the world around you (particularly a personal or news event unfolding) and reflect on the contextual lens yourself and others wear, the influence this may have on how the situation is perceived by various parties and how these factors might ultimately influence the outcomes from the event.

I have two friends whose children have been diagnosed with different types of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). One of these friends had her child diagnosed at quite a young age and has been able to access early intervention programs (like AEIOU) which has greatly improved his developmental progress, to the point that it is considered that he will be functioning at the same level as a child who does not have this disorder within a few years. The other friends son has just entered high school and has not had access to any of these early intervention programs due to their non existence when he was younger. He is now considered too old to be able to access these programs.

The challenges each of my friends has had to face has been extremely varied due to the different levels of support each has received. While my first friend was able to access the early intervention programs which greatly assisted her sons developmental progress, my second friend has had years of difficult behaviour to cope with from her son, which has resulted in him not progressing very well at his schools and left her wondering how he is going to cope when he finally starts to attempt independence in five short years when (or if) he finishes high school.

For anyone that has not been exposed to children with ASD, the behaviour they display can appear like nothing more than that of a bratty, spoilt child. Prior to the diagnosis, that thought may have crossed my mind several times too. However, once I started to learn more about it, I realised that they just see and interact with the world differently to us. Their behaviour at times, is nothing more than a display of their frustrations at not being able to communicate their thoughts and feelings to others effectively.

While I now have a greater understanding of this disorder and the challenges they have faced, my first friends parents have chosen not to learn more about their grandchilds diagnosis and still percieve his behaviour to be nothing more than a result of bad parenting. Their other daughter has produced, what would be considered by society, "normal" children with no evident behavioural abnormalities. They are quite conservative people and I often wonder if they are choosing to ignore the situation that exists, hoping it will go away, or if they really do believe that the behaviour displayed by this child is due to a lack of discipline. Perhaps if they took the time to research ASD further, they would understand and be able to interact with their grandchild more effectively.

My friends situations have allowed me to see their realities from different perspectives and question my own perceptions of this condition over the years. The most important thing I think I have learnt, is that just because something looks a certain way, doesnt mean that there are not other factors involved that you may not be aware of.
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Tuesday, 13 March 2012

Contextual Reality: Mapping the "simple" task of cooking.

Cooking is something I used to enjoy as a child. The basic kind of cooking though, like making pancakes on Sundays, or cukcakes for the school fete to sell. Burning my finger while "testing" the toffee we were making one day (to see if it was hot enough on the stove - what was I thinking?!) never deterred me from the fun of creating something from scratch and being able to eat what we made afterwards, although most of this cooking was usually under the watchful eye of someone older and more experienced.

When taking Home Economics at school, it was not so much to learn the fine art of cooking, but moreso a reason to take a class that would allow me to eat what I made at the end. After cooking one creation with a whole capsicum, not realising that you had to de-seed it first, I knew that I was definitely a cooking novice and was probably not going to become the next MasterChef anytime soon. 

While they say anyone can learn to cook, I think there also has to be some kind of motivation there as well. Whether that be cooking to try and impress someone, cooking as a communal task in a share house or living environment, cooking as a family responsibility, cooking to save money from eating out or just cooking for the love it. As someone who chooses to live alone, I dont find that any of the above reasons motivate me to cook. I also dont see the point in dirtying multiple fry pans, plates and dishes to create a delicious home cooked meal for one. This would only result in a lot of unnecessary washing up afterwards.

So given that cooking is really not my forte, I found it interesting when I started mapping the contextual reality of the simple act of cooking and while it started with the basic, obvious answers, the list soon grew and grew. And with those possibilities came a lot of risks, which are probably not consciously considered when cooking. This made me think that perhaps the act of not cooking for an inexperienced, unskilled person like myself is the safer option. Maybe down the track, I will find a reason to start cooking and will endeavour to learn the task of it, but for now I am happy to survive on microwave meals in between eating out with friends.
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